The [TOLKN] Fund
The Tolkien Fund Back Again has grown from H$89.37 to H$92.78 (H$3.41, 3.82%, 0.13%DROI) over the past 30 days. The fund has 73.03% of its funds invested, not counting excess profits tied up in shorted shares, or positions with fewer than 1,000 shares held. The fund’s top ten investments account for 51.5% of the fund’s value. A plurality of the fund’s value is invested in mid-cap stocks (41.46%) with most of the remainder in large-cap (25.3%). The fund is heavily invested in Movie Stocks (50.8%) with a strong investment in Star Bonds (22.3%). 58% of the value of the fund’s Movie Stocks is invested in stocks in the ‘Wrap’ phase, with 21.1% in ‘Production’ and 18.5% in ‘Development.’
The funds top 10 investments consist of 6 Movie Stocks and 4 Star Bonds. Three of the six Movie Stocks release this year (FAST6, RIDC2, T5EST), and of the other three, only one has a release date (JUPTR). The fund seems to have a nice mix of development projects, which can quickly balloon in value, and films with firm release dates which tend to trend upwards more slowly, but steadily. All four of the Star Bonds in the Top 10 investments will adjust the up on their next adjusts, so the fund seems well positioned.
| Movie Stocks |
| Name | Price | Shares Held | Value | % of Fund |
| FAST6 | $ 176.43| 100,000 Long |$17,643,000| 19.02% |
| JUPTR | $ 57.39| 100,000 Long |$ 5,739,000| 6.19% |
| RIDC2 | $ 44.23| 100,000 Short |$ 4,423,000| 4.77% |
| CINDE | $ 37.08| 100,000 Long |$ 3,708,000| 4.00% |
| TINT2 | $ 34.13| 100,000 Long |$ 3,413,100| 3.68% |
| T5EST | $ 31.45| 100,000 Long |$ 3,145,000| 3.39% |
| Star Bonds |
| Name | Price | # Shares | Value | % of Fund | Next Adj |
| RARMI | $ 157.59 | 20,000 Long|$3,151,800| 3.40% | 1/07/14 |
| IMCKE | $ 133.55 | 20,000 Long|$2,671,000| 2.88% | 1/07/14 |
| KURBA | $ 99.20 | 20,000 Long|$1,984,000| 2.14% | 6/11/13 |
| CLEE | $ 98.20 | 20,000 Long|$1,964,000| 2.12% | 1/07/14 |
| Fund Allocations |
| Sm. Cap| Mid Cap | Lg. Cap | Movie | Bonds |DVLP|PROD|WRAP|RLSE |
| 6.27% | 41.46% | 25.30% | 50.8% | 22.3% |18.5|21.1|57.3| 3.08|
I think this fund should delist in the next 1 to 1 ½ months. If it delisted 30 days from now it would be a 0.26%DROI, about double the past 30 days. I think this is a reasonable expectation provided the release of FAST6 between now and then, and the potential movement on the derivatives associated with it. If it took 45 days it would be 0.17%DROI.
The [UNIVX] Fund
The Universal Studio Fund has grown from H$29.86 to H$32.00 (H$2.14, 7.17%, 0.24%DROI) over the past 30 days. The fund holds 93.91% of its fund invested not counting excess profits from shorting stocks, or positions with fewer than 1,000 shares held. Interestingly, the fund’s assets are tied up in just 8 positions. 5 Are mid-cap (69.7%), 2 are large-cap (24.18%) and 1 is small-cap (0.1%). The fund’s assets are mostly tied up in ‘Development’ projects (59.8%), but that can be a little misleading, because projects like JURA4 and FAST7 will move into production shortly, and JURA4 already has a release date next summer.
The fund has chosen not to invest significantly in films with unsure futures. While it makes sense to think that FAST7 is undervalued (H$94.22), it may not make sense to have 29.5% of the fund’s value tied up in a stock that will not release before next summer (at the earliest). Currently the fund has only 25,002 shares invested in FAST6, and 25,001 shares invested in OBLVN, the next two releases from Universal, and without the funds that are tied up in FAST7 and JURA4 (together representing 56.1% of the fund’s value) I don’t know how the fund will make significant advances in the short term.
| Movie Stocks |
| Name | Price | Shares Held | Value | % of Fund |
| FAST7 | $ 94.22| 100,000 Long |$ 9,422,000| 29.52% |
| JURA4 | $ 84.89| 100,000 Long |$ 8,489,000| 16.59% |
| FAST6 | $ 176.43| 25,002 Long |$ 4,411,103| 13.82% |
| JP3D | $ 37.30| 100,000 Long |$ 3,730,000| 11.69% |
| OBLVN | $ 132.25| 25,001 Long |$ 3,306,382| 10.36% |
| PURGE | $ 20.18| 25,001 Long |$ 504,520| 1.58% |
| TED2 | $ 94.02| 1,000 Long |$ 94,020| 0.29% |
| ASTRD | $ 7.67| 2,484 Short |$ 19,052| 0.06% |
| Fund Allocations |
| Sm. Cap| Mid Cap | Lg. Cap | Movie | Bonds |DVLP|PROD|WRAP|RLSE |
| 0.06% | 69.67% | 24.18% | 93.9% | N/A |59.8|0.00|39.9| 0.00|
On an aside, the UNIVX fund is allowed to invest in the upcoming releases from Universal Pictures and Focus Features, but I only see shares held for one upcoming Focus project (WSEND). The fund manager may want to investigate some of the limited release Focus Features stocks to see if there is an opportunity for a better ROI than the Universal blockbusters.
In order for UNIVX to delist at the same price as last year (H$48.97), the fund will need to average 0.30%DROI assuming a September 15th delist date. I’ve created a chart to show the needed DROI for several other delist prices.
| Dlst $ | DROI |
|$ 40.00 | 0.14% |
|$ 50.00 | 0.32% |
|$ 60.00 | 0.50% |
|$ 70.00 | 0.67% |
|$ 80.00 | 0.85% |
|$ 90.00 | 1.03% |
|$100.00 | 1.21% |
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