Andrew Miller's Vizify Bio

Saturday, March 23, 2013

Volume I, Issue VI "LATIN" & "BIGEZ"

The [LATIN] Fund

The Latin Fund has grown over the past 30 days from H$33.87 to H$36.38 (H$2.51, 7.41%, .25%DROI). The fund has been growing slowly but steadily for the past three months since it's IPO. The fund's current top ten investments consist of 9 Movie Stocks and 1 Starbond. Currently the fund is pretty spread out, with positions in many different movie stocks. One of the striking things that stuck me about this fund was the managers decisions on the amount of shares to buy. The fund holds two or three positions with 66,999 shares short. Several others with 44,999 shares. I believe the fund manager is using the different amounts of shares to represent different types of positions held, but I haven't seen that done before with numbers < 99,000 shares.

The top 10 positions of The Latin Fund are an interesting mix. It is good to see SPBRK in the mix, as it open's wide today, but it is a little odd to me that the fund holds so much of it's assets in stocks that it only holds 10,000 shares in. I wonder if the fund, worth just over H$35.00 million, is pushing to aggressively after mid-cap stocks, when it might be better off focusing on some of the small-cap stocks and star bonds instead.

                                                            
| Movie Stocks                                             |
| Name  |   Price  |     #Shares   |   Value   | % of Fund |
| TREK2 | $ 264.06 |  26,000 Long  |$6,865,560 |   18.97%  |
| SPBRK | $  23.37 | 100,000 Long  |$2,337,000 |    6.46%  |
| CWCM2 | $  79.06 |  20,000 Long  |$1,581,200 |    4.37%  |
| PACRM | $ 141.25 |  10,000 Long  |$1,412,500 |    3.90%  |
| RIO2  | $  65.92 |  20,000 Long  |$1,318,400 |    3.64%  |
| TURB1 | $  84.36 |  14,000 Long  |$1,181,040 |    3.26%  |
| SMRF2 | $  76.09 |  10,000 Long  |$  760,900 |    2.10%  |
| GRWN2 | $  70.73 |  10,000 Long  |$  707,300 |    1.95%  |
| GETAW | $  21.28 |  25,000 Long  |$  532,000 |    1.47%  |

                                                                   
| Star Bonds                                                      |
| Name  |   Price  | # Shares   | Value    | % of Fund | Next Adj |
| ABRAG | $  24.75 | 20,000 Long|$ 495,000 |   1.37%   |  9/03/13 |

                                                                   
|                         Fund Allocations                        |
| Sm. Cap| Mid Cap | Lg. Cap | Movie | Bonds |DVLP|PROD|WRAP|RLSE |
5.43% | 30.80%  | 22.87%  | 51.5% |  6.5% |2.21|26.0|57.9| 13.9|


The fund seems to be actively looking to take advantage of big upcoming releases, but I question how effective this strategy will be if the fund is not more heavily invested in them. I was surprised to see the fund had not taken a position on ADMSN yet, despite holding some radar stocks. Overall, I think the fund is a good ivestement for large portfolios, but smaller ones could probably get a better ROI on other investments.

The [BIGEZ] Fund

  he NOLA fund has had slow growth over the past 30 days. The fund has frown from H$29.12 to H$29.95 (H$0.83, 2.85%, 0.1%DROI) during this period. The fund is heavily invested, with the assests visible to the public representing 95% of the funds value. The fund shows heavy investment in mid-cap stocks, with an emphasis on movies. The fund’s current investments show that 87% of the funds value is held in movie stocks, with 92% of the value of those investments in films that are either in the ‘Wrap’ or ‘Release’ phase. The fund’s top 10 assets account for 87% of its worth, led by OBLVN, which accounts for 28.5% of the fund’s holdings. I like that the fund has positions in the OW derivatives of GIJO2 and OLYHF, these seem like good ways to invest in these movies without tying up much of the fund’s capital.

A point of concern for me is that the fund does not seem to be maximizing the value of the Star Bonds in which it can invest. From my perspective, I don’t see a reason to hold less than 20,000 shares of a Star Bond unless I’m tying up the last bit of liquidity I have available. For example, the fund holds 3,000 shares Short in KBOSW, who at current prices will adjust down H$1.37 on 8/6/2013 (.22%DROI) and holds 4,000 shares Long in KWASH, who at current prices will adjust up H$5.33 on 6/4/2013 (.20%DROI). To me, it would make more sense to go ‘all-in’ on KWASH, and move the assets from KWASH to KBOSW after KWASH adjusted.  However, a possible explanation is that the manager of the fund feels that both Star Bonds will continue to move incrementally each day, and until the adjust for KWASH is closer, it’s a better investment to capture each day’s movement than to wait for the adjust in June. While I don’t personally agree with that strategy, I can understand its appeal and don’t fault the fund manager for employing it.

                                                             
| Movie Stocks & Derivatives                                |
| Name   |   Price  |     #Shares   |   Value   | % of Fund |
| OBLVN  | $ 131.92 |  65,000 Long  |$8,574,800 |   28.52%  |
| OLYHF  | $  59.36 | 100,000 Long  |$5,936,000 |   19.74%  |
| HOST1  | $  48.79 |  95,000 Long  |$4,635,050 |   15.41%  |
| EGAME  | $ 137.98 |  20,000 Long  |$2,759,600 |    9.18%  |
| OLDBO  | $  28.32 |  40,000 Long  |$1,132,800 |    3.77%  |
| 2GUNS  | $  53.09 |  10,000 Long  |$  530,900 |    1.77%  |
|GIJO2.OW| $  52.05 |  10,000 Long  |$  520,500 |    1.73%  |
| THNDR  | $   9.72 |  50,000 Short |$  486,000 |    1.62%  |
| SGAME  | $  11.11 |  40,000 Short |$  444,400 |    1.48%  |
| GETAW  | $  21.28 |  25,000 Long  |$  532,000 |    1.47%  |

                                                                   
| Star Bonds                                                      |
| Name  |   Price  | # Shares   | Value    | % of Fund | Next Adj |
| BCUMB | $  84.57 | 15,000 Long|$1,223,550|   4.07%   |  6/11/13 |
                                                                   
|                         Fund Allocations                        |
| Sm. Cap| Mid Cap | Lg. Cap | Movie | Bonds |DVLP|PROD|WRAP|RLSE |
4.63% | 52.33%  | 37.69%  | 87.0% |  5.0% |1.86|6.03|69.4| 22.7|
The fund is heavily invested in OBLVN, but I worry that the movie stock may be tying up too much of the fund's assets, as it does not have too much of a change of opening much higher than $55 million over it's opening weekend. Even in that 'best case' scenario, the stock will only adjust to H$148.5, a 12% return. A more likly outcome is $50 million, which would yield a 2.4% return. I wonder whether tying up more than a quarter of the fund's assets in this position is wise.

Overall, I think this fund is well positioned, but the slow growth over the past few months gives me pause reccomending it. I feel, similar to the BIGEZ fund, that it may be a good investment if you posses a large portfolio, but smaller portfolios may want to look elswhere.

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