Andrew Miller's Vizify Bio

Saturday, March 23, 2013

Volume I, Issue VII "DJAVU" & "SQUEL"

The [DJAVU] Fund


The Remake Fund 5 has had a solid past 30 days. The fund has grown from H$47.29 to H$55.79 (H$8.50, 17.97%, 0.60%DROI) showing epically strong growth over the past two weeks (H$ 6.45, 13.07%, 0.93%DROI). The fund has a large majority of its mid-cap movie stocks, with Movie Stocks representing 74.5% of the fund’s assets and mid-cap position accounting for 74.4%. The fund’s top ten investments consists of 9 Movie Stocks and 1 Star Bond—in aggregate they represent 59.9% of the fund’s worth.

The fund’s publicly calculable assets represent 93.03% of the fund’s value, it is likely that the fund has very little capital not invested. Most of the fund’s dollars invested in Movie Stocks are in the ‘Development’ phase. These movies tend to sit idle for a while before jumping quite a bit in value when they move into production.

The fund is holding 8 of its 9 Movie Stocks Long, most of them are in the Development or Production stage, so it makes sense to think their value will increase over time. Pictures like EQLIZ, UNCLE, and VACTN all have had news recently and seen good growth.

                                                           
| Movie Stocks                                            |
| Name  |  Price  | Shares Held   |   Value   | % of Fund |
| JACGK |$  61.51 | 100,000 Short |$ 6,515,000|  11.04%   |
| CINDE |$  37.13 | 100,000 Long  |$ 3,713,000|   6.66%   |
| GODZL |$  73.45 |  50,000 Long  |$ 3,672,500|   6.59%   |
ANNIE |$  35.15 | 100,000 Long  |$ 3,515,000|   6.31%   |
| COLOS |$  34.55 | 100,000 Long  |$ 3,455,000|   6.20%   |
| EQLIZ |$  32.57 | 100,000 Long  |$ 3,257,000|   5.85%   |
| OLDBO |$  28.27 | 100,000 Long  |$ 2,827,000|   5.07%   |
| UNCLE |$  23.18 | 100,000 Long  |$ 2,318,000|   4.16%   |
| VACTN |$  22.45 | 100,000 Long  |$ 2,245,000|   4.03%   |

                                                                 
| Star Bonds                                                      |

| Name  |   Price  | # Shares   | Value    | % of Fund | Next Adj |
LDCAP | $ 109.52 |20,000 Short|$2,190,400|   3.93%   |  6/04/13 |

                                                                   
|                         Fund Allocations                        |

| Sm. Cap| Mid Cap | Lg. Cap | Movie | Bonds |DVLP|PROD|WRAP|RLSE |
| 14.70% | 74.40%  |  3.87%  | 74.5% | 18.5% |61.9|15.7|4.18| 18.3|

Interestingly, DJAVU is holding LDCAP short, although at current prices, he would adjust up H$0.60 when GATSB delists on 6/4/2013. I wonder if the fund manager thinks GATSB is overpriced? Unless the manager thinks GATSB is very overpriced, I don’t think it makes much sense to tie up so much of the fund’s assets (3.93%) on a stock to won’t have a ton of movement. Even if GATSB drops to H$60.00, LDCAP would only adjust down to H$106.25 (H$-3.27, 2.99%, .04%DROI). A quick survey of the other Stab Bonds being held shows the manager does have a good eye towards which bonds represent a good investment, so I’m curious to know why they chose to Short LDCAP.

Overall I think the DJAVU fund is in a strong position to keep returning between 0.50%-0.75%DROI for the foreseeable future. It will be interesting to see how the fund tackles some of the upcoming remakes, such as EVILD and GATSB.


 The [SQUEL] Fund


The Sequel Fund has been struggling to gain much traction lately, growing from H$34.23 to H$34.69 over the past 30 days (H$0.46, 1.34%, .04%DROI). The fund is heavily invested in Movie Stocks, they represent 77.3% of the fund’s assets. Mid-cap stocks make up a majority of the fund’s investments, accounting for 67.9% of the fund’s value. A plurality of the value of the fund’s Movie Stock investments can be found in ‘Development’ movies- they account for 44.3% of the Movie Stock value.

The SQUEL Fund’s top 10 investments consist of 7 Movie Stocks and 3 Star Bonds. The Movie stocks run the gambit from films that are in development with no release date, to films in ‘Wrap’ coming out soon. The nice thing about the SQUEL fund is that there is no shortage of sequels coming out over the summer the fund can invest in. Just in the next two months GIJO2, SACR5, IRNM3, TREK2, FAST6, and HNVR3 all release. The fund should be able to take advantage of movement on those stocks to provide a solid return over the next few months.

                                                           
| Movie Stocks                                            |
| Name  |  Price  | Shares Held   |   Value   | % of Fund |
PAND3 |$  75.00 | 100,000 Long  |$ 7,500,000|   21.82%  |
| JB24  |$ 176.04 |  25,000 Long  |$ 4,401,000|   12.80%  |
| RIDC2 |$  43.59 | 100,000 Short |$ 4,359,000|   12.68%  |
| SCAR5 |$  29.54 | 100,000 Long  |$ 2,954,000|    8.59%  |
| KKID2 |$  23.93 | 100,000 Long  |$ 2,393,000|    6.96%  |
| RESE6 |$  33.34 |  50,000 Long  |$ 1,667,000|    4.85%  |
| BJON3 |$   2.97 | 100,000 Short |$   297,000|    0.86%  |
                                                                   
| Star Bonds                                                      |

| Name  |   Price  | # Shares   | Value    | % of Fund | Next Adj
|
ATISD | $  53.12 |20,000 Long |$1,062,400|   3.09%   |  5/07/13 |
| KBOWD | $  20.53 |20,000 Long |$  410,600|   1.19%   |  5/07/13 |
| LLOHA | $  16.56 |20,000 Long |$  331,200|   0.96%   |  5/07/13 |


                                                                   
|                         Fund Allocations                        |

| Sm. Cap| Mid Cap | Lg. Cap | Movie | Bonds |DVLP|PROD|WRAP|RLSE |
|  1.83% | 67.94%  | 12.80%  | 77.3% | 5.25% |44.3|28.2|27.5| 0.00|

However, the fund has limited resources, currently only about H$35 million, and many of these movies are blockbusters that will be difficult for the fund to invest in fully. For example, IRMN3 is currently trading at H$337.30, which would eat up almost the entire fund at 100,000 shares. In my opinion the fund will need to use the .OW derivatives (and guess correctly on them) throughout April in order to have enough capital to get the most out of May. It presents an interesting challenge for the manager of the fund. Investing in SQUEL could be quite lucrative over the summer months, but it could also be difficult to realize significant gains if the fund manager misses on a couple of movies in a row in April. I recommend investing in the fund and riding out the waves, because the potential payoff is so high.

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