Fund Watch: March 2013

Friday, March 29, 2013

Volume I, Issue XII "PARAX" & "CHOIC"

The [PARAX] Fund

The Paramount Studio Fund grew form H$ 16.17 to H$19.50 (H$3.33, 20.59%, 0.69%dROI) over the past 30 days. The fund’s investments are highly concentrated, only holding significant positions in four securities. The fund seems to have quite a bit of capital ready to invest, likely in taking a position on GIJO2 sometime over the next 24 hours. The fund did not play the .OW derivative. The fund holds 35% of its capital in Large-Cap stocks, 30.4% in Mid-Cap securities, and just 1.87% in Small-Cap. Shares in securities are more evenly spread at 20.3% for Large-Cap, 39.8% for Mid-Cap and Small-Cap. The fund’s assets are almost evenly divided between securities in Release (49.4%) and in Development (50.6%), which no funds invested in any securities in Production or Wrap.

Note: The Development, Production, Wrap and Release percentages are representative not of the share of the total fund, but of the share of funds invested in Movie Stocks.

The fund is 68% invested, although that will likely change sometime in the next 24 hours with an investment in GIJO2. The fund’s four current investments are as follows.

If the fund continues to grow at 0.69%dROI, the delist price on 9/15/13 would be H$63.54. If it grows at 0.50%, its rate since IPO, it would delist at H$46.09. My best guess is somewhere in between, but closer to H$50.00.

The [CHOIC] Fund

The Player’s Choice Fund has grown from H$27.86 to H$35.45 (H$7.59, 27.24%, .91%dROI) over the last 30 days. The fund’s investments are almost evenly split between Movie Stocks (6) and Star Bonds (7), however the value of the investments and the number of shares invested both heavily favor Movie Stocks. The Movie Stocks make up 53% of the fund’s value and 62.5% of its invested shares, compared to just 28.4% and 18.1% respectively for Star Bonds.

A little more than half of the fund’s invested shares are in Small-Cap stocks (51.2%), while 26.4% are in Mid-Cap and the remaining 19.4% are in Large Cap. The fund holds (6) Small Cap Stocks, (6) Mid-Cap Stocks and (4) Large Cap stocks. Of the six movie stocks the fund holds, 3 are in the release phase ([OZTGP] [GIJO2] [FUOPH]). The large investment in released projects means the fund will have more capital available soon to re-invest in other ventures. The following table shows the full breakdowns of the fund’s investments. (Not shown are the Derivatives the fund is invested in, totaling 3 investments. They account for 12.8% of the value, 19.4% of the shares, and 18.9% of the Positions.)

Note: The Development, Production, Wrap and Release percentages are representative not of the share of the total fund, but of the share of funds invested in Movie Stocks.

The fund is 94.2% invested, not counting the profits tied up in shorted shares. The fund’s top 10 investments consist of 3 Movie Stocks, 6 Star Bonds, and 1 Derivative, and account for 88.9% of the fund’s value.

If the fund continues to grow at .91% dROI, it would delist on 7/21/13, if the fund grows at 1.04% dROI, its rate since IPO, it would delist on 7/7/13. I am going to project a more conservative .60%dROI, because the fund is quite limited in what it can invest in, and I feel it may have trouble continuing this rate of growth. At .60%dROI, the fund would delist on 9/18/13.

Volume I, Issue XI "NYNY" & "SNL"

The [NYNY] Fund

The NYNY fund has grown from H$67.51 to H$78.16 (H$10.65, 15.78%, 0.52%dROI) over the past 30 days. The NYNY fund is heavily invested in Star Bonds as they account for 61.6% of the funds value; movie Stocks account for 34.1% of the value. The fund has a majority of its assets in Mid-Cap stocks, accounting for 79.7% of the fund’s value. However, when looking at the number of individual positions held, the fund has 83.2% of invested shares in Small-Cap securities. The following table illustrates the fund’s holdings.

| Value | 10.78m | 63.38m | 2.00m | 27.2m | 25.9m| 0.7m | 0.3m | 0.1m | 49.0m |

| Count | 99 | 61 | 1 | 80 | 68 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 81 |

| Shares| 7.297m | 1.455m | 20,000 | 6.75m | 6.0m | 58k | 463k | 200k | 2.02m |

|%Value | 13.56% | 79.69% | 2.52% | 34.1% | 95.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 61.6% |

|%Count | 61.49% | 37.89% | 0.62% | 49.7% | 85.0 | 2.5 | 10.0 | 2.5 | 50.3% |

|%Shares| 83.19% | 16.58% | 0.23% | 77.0% | 89.3 | 0.9 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 23.3% |

Note:

The Development, Production, Wrap and Release percentages are representative not of the share of the total fund, but of the share of funds invested in Movie Stocks.

The fund holds 95.8% of its funds invested, discounting profits tied up in shorted shares and positions with fewer than 1,000 shares invested. The fund’s top 10 holdings account for 34.8% of the fund’s value, and consist of 6 Star Bonds and 4 Movie Stocks. The following table show the top 10 securities by value.

| NMUS3 | $ 94.33 | 100,000 Long | $ 9,433,000 | 11.86% |

| EQLIZ | $ 31.78 | 97,000 Long | $ 3,082,660 | 3.88% |

| IDAY2 | $ 58.86 | 50,000 Long | $ 2,943,000 | 3.70% |

| BCRYS | $ 100.12 | 20,000 Long | $ 2,002,400 | 2.52% |

| DOMON | $ 94.73 | 20,000 Short | $ 1,894,600 | 2.38% |

| SKANG | $ 92.44 | 20,000 Long | $ 1,848,800 | 2.32% |

| NHOUL | $ 89.75 | 20,000 Long | $ 1,795,000 | 2.26% |

| JFAVR | $ 85.23 | 20,000 Long | $ 1,704,600 | 2.14% |

| EBANA | $ 77.22 | 20,000 Short | $ 1,544,400 | 1.94% |

| HEMAN | $ 14.48 | 100,000 Long | $ 1,448,000 | 1.82% |

The fund seems well positioned to take advantage of upcoming news and development projects, which is good because there don’t appear to be many eligible movies being released soon. The fund holds 20,000 shares in all of the eligible Star Bonds, so I expect the fund manager to keep investing the profits made off of the Star Bonds into more and more of the development movie projects. One of them has to get released eventually, right?

If the fund keeps returning a 0.52% dROI, it would delist on 5/12/13. However, if the fund maintains a 1.1% dROI (it’s growth rate since IPO), it would delist on 4/18/13. I expect it to delist somewhere between those two dates. If the fund struggles, and only maintains a 0.25% dROI, it would delist on 6/28/13.

The [SNL] Fund

The Not Ready for Prime Time Fund has grown from H$54.93 to H$57.51 (H$2.58, 4.7%, 0.16%dROI) over the past 30 days. The fund’s current split between Movie Stocks and Star Bonds sits at 55.5/36.7, accounting for 92.2% of the fund’s value. Most of the fund’s value is tied up in Mid-Cap stocks, accounting for 56.5% of the fund’s value, but only 20.0% of the shares it has invested. 74.9% of the fund’s invested shares, and 52.5% of its positions, are in Small-Cap securities. The following table illustrates the fund’s holdings.

| Value | 8.07m | 32.57m | 12.48m | 32.0m | 7.4m | 20.5m| 4.1m| 600 | 21.1m |

| Count | 31 | 26 | 2 | 44 | 26 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 15 |

| Shares| 2.08m | 583.0k | 112.5k | 2.47m | 1.7m | 358k | 398k | 10k | 300k |

|%Value | 14.00% | 56.53% | 21.66% | 55.5% | 23.1 | 64.1 | 12.8 | 0.0 | 36.7% |

|%Count | 52.54% | 44.07% | 3.39% | 74.6% | 59.1 | 15.9 | 22.7 | 2.3 | 25.4% |

|%Shares| 74.91% | 21.03% | 4.06% | 89.2% | 69.0 | 14.5 | 16.1 | 0.4 | 10.8% |

Note:

The Development, Production, Wrap and Release percentages are representative not of the share of the total fund, but of the share of funds invested in Movie Stocks.

The SNL Fund’s top ten investments are made up of 8 Star Bonds and 2 Movie Stocks. These high-value investments are safe, but are slow growing. The average dROI on these 8 Star Bonds is only 0.07%, and in aggregate, at their current dROIs, would yield only H$10,200/day. The complete top 10 investments are listed below.

| ANCH2 | $ 113.25 | 92,500 Long | $ 10,475,625 | 18.18% |

| MUPE2 | $ 54.48 | 100,000 Long | $ 5,448,000 | 9.46% |

| BCRYS | $ 100.12 | 20,000 Long | $ 2,002,400 | 3.48% |

| DSPAD | $ 98.86 | 20,000 Long | $ 1,997,200 | 3.43% |

| BHADE | $ 98.22 | 20,000 Short | $ 1,964,400 | 3.41% |

| MRUDO | $ 94.53 | 20,000 Short | $ 1,890,600 | 3.28% |

| CROCK | $ 92.04 | 20,000 Long | $ 1,840,800 | 3.20% |

| BSTIL | $ 91.33 | 20,000 Long | $ 1,826,600 | 3.17% |

| KWIIG | $ 90.29 | 20,000 Short | $ 1,805,800 | 3.13% |

| RSCHN | $ 88.75 | 20,000 Long | $ 1,775,000 | 3.08% |

While the fund’s investments lean heavily towards Movie Stocks, it worries me to see so much of the fund’s assets ( those 8 Star Bonds account for 26% of the fund) tied up in such low return assets. Perhaps the fund manager can look at re-allocating some of the money invested in the high-price star bonds, and move it Star Bonds with a better dROI, or Movie Stocks that have a promising outlook.

If the fund continues it’s current pace of 0.16% dROI, it would delist on 3/8/14. If the fund maintains the 0.56% dROI it has managed since IPO, it would delist on 7/5/13. I’d estimate a dROI of around 0.3%, which would put the delist date at 10/2/13.

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Volume I, Issue X "LAFSF & LGFX"

The [LAFSF] Fund

The L.A. Film Schooled Fund has been around for quite a while, it’s IPO was 10/7/2009. Since that time it has climbed to H$96.30 (H$76.30, 381.5%, 0.30%DROI). Over the past 30 days, the fund has grown from H$94.58 to H$96.30 (H$1.72, 1.82%, 0.06%DORI). The fund is currently 84.1% invested, not counting any assets tied up in the profits from shorting stocks. The fund’s assets are largely tied up in Movie Stocks (67.9%), although there is significant investment in Star Bonds as well (16.2%). A majority of the fund’s assets are invested in Large-Cap stocks, accounting for 56% of the fund’s total. The fund’s top 10 investments account for 67.2% of the worth of the fund and include 6 Movie Stocks and 4 Star Bonds.

The fund has positions on [GIJO2] and [CROOD], as well as [LONER] and [HNOV3], showing a large investment in movies that are either in Release, or being released in the coming months. Movies in ‘Release’ or ‘Production’ make up 82% of the assets the fund has invested in Movie Stocks. Combined with the investments in [TERM5] and [MALEF], the fund seems well positioned to propel past H$100 in the near future. The fund’s investments in development projects (H$6.15 million) should help the fund take advantage of any news on projects that have news announced.


| Movie Stocks                                            |
| Name | Price | Shares Held   |   Value | % of Fund |
| LONER | $ 148.34| 100,000 Long |$14,831,000| 15.36% |
| GIJO2 | $ 125.21| 100,000 Short |$12,521,000|   12.96% |
| CROOD | $ 124.49| 100,000 Long |$12,449,000|   12.89% |
| MALEF | $ 73.64| 100,000 Long |$ 7,364,000|    7.62% |
| TERM5 | $ 34.33| 100,000 Long |$ 3,433,000|    3.55% |
| HNOV3 | $ 160.10| 20,000 Long |$ 3,202,000|    3.32% |

| Star Bonds |
| Name | Price | Shares Held |   Value | % of Fund | Next Adjust|
| GVERB | $ 172.17| 20,000 Short |$ 3,443,400|    3.56% | 7/30/13 |
| BBIRD | $ 160.10| 20,000 Long |$ 3,216,400|    3.33% |   1/13/15 |
| JLIN | $ 110.41| 20,000 Long |$ 2,208,200|    2.29% |   6/18/13 |
| TBRUT | $ 109.99| 20,000 Short |$ 2,199,800|    2.28% |    N/A    |


|                         Fund Allocations      |
| Sm. Cap| Mid Cap | Lg. Cap | Movie | Bonds |DVLP|PROD|WRAP|RLSE |
| 5.13% | 23.03% | 55.98% | 67.9% | 16.2% | 9.4|10.5|61.2| 19.0|


| DROI | Dlst Date |
| 0.06% | 5/27/13 |
| 0.10% |   5/02/13 |
| 0.15% |   4/20/13 |
| 0.20% |   4/13/13 |
| 0.25% |   4/10/13 |
| 0.30% |   4/07/13 |
| 0.40% |   4/04/13 |
| 0.50% |   4/02/13 |

The [LGFX] Fund

The Lionsgate Studio Fund has fallen slightly over the past 30 days, shriking from H$18.89 to H$18.69 (-H$0.20, -0.27%, -0.04%dROI). The fund only has 60.0% of its available assets invested in stocks, not accounting for any profits tied up in shorted movie stocks. The fund’s top 10 investments account for 50.5% of the fund’s assets. The fund has an unusually large amount of capital tied up in Small-Cap investments, they account for 32.4% of the funds worth. All told, 94% of the shares the fund has invested are invested in Small-Cap Movie Stocks.
The Lionsgate Fund’s top 10 movie stocks show a strategy that involves shorting a lot of development projects. 57.1% of the value of the Movie Stocks held by the fund is in development projects, and those funds account for 65.5% of the shares invested in Movie Stocks. All of the remaining invested assets are in ‘Wrap’ stocks, accounting for 42.8% of invested funds. So far, this strategy has not paid large dividends, but it will be interesting to see what happens if Lionsgate starts announcing 2014 release dates, perhaps boosting many of the stock’s values.

The single largest investment the fund has currently is the 40,000 shares it holds in [DVRGN], which has had a lot of casting new lately. I would expect that as news on this project dies down, the fund might invest some of that money into projects releasing this summer, such as [NYSME] and [RED2]. I think the fund may be planning on using some of its assets to invest in [TMRGC] this weekend, but may be waiting to hear more news on the expected opening.


| Movie Stocks                                            |
| Name | Price | Shares Held   |   Value | % of Fund |
| DVRGN | $ 59.98 | 40,000 Long |$ 2,399,200|   12.77% |
| DRAFT | $ 18.29 | 100,000 Long |$ 1,829,000|   9.73% |
| JESAB | $ 13.64 | 100,000 Long |$ 1,364,000|    7.26% |
| ALOST | $ 11.31 | 100,000 Short |$ 1,131,000|    6.02% |
| ADCTD | $ 9.33 | 100,000 Short |$   933,000|    4.97% |
| LNLA2 | $ 8.72 | 100,000 Short |$   872,000|    4.64% |
| GAYDU | $ 2.58 | 100,000 Short |$   258,000|    1.37% |
| ISTAY | $ 2.54 | 100,000 Long |$   254,000|    1.35% |
| YOURH | $ 2.41 | 100,000 Short |$   241,000|    1.28% |
| OSTER | $ 2.21 | 100,000 Short |$   221,000|    1.18% |


|                         Fund Allocations      |
| Sm. Cap| Mid Cap | Lg. Cap | Movie | Bonds |DVLP|PROD|WRAP|RLSE |
| 32.43% | 23.65% |   0.00% | 56.1% | N/A |57.1|0.00|42.8| 00.0|


| DROI | Dlst $ |
| 0.04% | $ 20.16 |
| 0.10% | $ 22.58 |
| 0.20% | $ 27.27 |
| 0.35% | $ 36.17 |
| 0.50% | $ 47.97 |
| 0.65% | $ 63.59 |
| 0.80% | $ 84.27 |
| 1.00% | $122.56 |

Monday, March 25, 2013

Volume I, Issue IX "WBROX" & "YOUNG"

The [WBROX] Fund

The Warner Brothers Studio Fund has not been able to make any significant gains in the last month, growing from H$11.02 to H$11.06 (H$0.04, 0.36%, 0.01%DROI). This fund has not been able to gain any real traction since it's IPO (H$1.06, 10.6%, 0.05%DROI). The fund currently has 97.6% of its fund invested, not counting excess profits tied up in shorted positions. The fund's top 10 investments represent 67.9% of the fund's value, and include only movies.

The top 10 investments for the fund demonstrate an investment strategy that leans heavily on movies in development. Only 1 of the 10 films (PRSNS) has a release date this year, and only one other (GODZL) has a release date next year. The other 8 films are all in development, although some of them have better odds than others. Warner Brothers has had a rough ride for the beginning of the year, films like [BURTW], [JACGK], [HDSHT], [TFGSQ] and [BTCRT] failing to meet analyst expectations. It is disappointing to see the the [WBROX] fund has not been able to take advantage of any of the fluctuations in price over the past few months.

| Movie Stocks                                            |
| Name | Price | Shares Held   |   Value | % of Fund |
| RTECH | $ 17.24 | 75,000 Long |$ 1,293,000| 11.69& |
| CRMSP | $ 27.79 | 45,000 Long |$ 1,250,550| 11.31% |
| BLEND | $ 25.67 | 40,000 Long |$ 1,026,800| 9.28% |
| JURN3 | $ 30.33 | 25,000 Long |$ 758,250| 6.86% |
| GODZL | $ 74.21 | 10,000 Long |$ 742,100| 6.71% |
| TARZN | $ 18.86 | 35,000 Long |$ 660,100| 5.97% |
| WARCF | $ 27.69 | 20,000 Long |$ 553,800| 5.01% |
| LSOFH | $ 19.92 | 25,000 Long |$ 498,000| 4.50% |
| PRSNS | $ 24.71 | 15,000 Long |$ 370,650| 3.35% |
| JLEAG | $140.31 | 2,500 Long |$ 350,775| 3.17% |


|                         Fund Allocations      |
| Sm. Cap| Mid Cap | Lg. Cap | Movie | Bonds |DVLP|PROD|WRAP|RLSE |
| 19.46% | 74.96% | 3.17% | 97.6% | N/A |86.4|11.6| 0.0| 0.0|

Hopefully, [WBROX] will find a way to take advantage of a strong Spring/Summer release schedule including [42], [GATSB], [HNVR3], [SUPR2] and [PACRM], although it will be challenging with so little capital to work with. One strategy may be to go 'All-in' (Long or Short) on [[42], knowing it will take about 1/2 of the fund to do so, hoping to see a significant ROI over the next couple weeks. Below is a chart showing the Delist price of the Fund with varying DROI, assuming a September 15th delist date. Right now I would estimate the delist price will be between H$14.00 and H$ 16.00.

| DROI | Delist Price |
| .05% | $ 12.07 |
| .10% | $ 13.17 |
| .20% | $ 15.69 |
| .30% | $ 18.68 |
| .40% | $ 22.24 |
| .50% | $ 26.47 |
| .75% | $ 40.89 |
|1.00% | $ 63.10 |

The [YOUNG] Fund

The Young Hollywood Fund has grown from H$65.31 to H$70.58 (H$5.27, 8.07%, 0.27%DROI) over the past 30 days. The fund currently only has 22.1% of it's funds invested, holding just 7 positions with more than 1 share. That leaves approimately H50 million un-invested at the moment, possibly to take a position on [HOST1] later this week. Looking at the growth of the fund since IPO (H$50.58, 252.9%, .89%DROI) it's clear the fund manager does not usually let this much capital sit idle, so I believe its safe to assume the manager is waiting for more information about the opening of the host before investing the remaining capital of the fund (or at least a large chunk of it) into [HOST1] this weekend.

The fund's current investments consist of 4 Movie Stocks and 3 Star Bonds. One Star Bond, [CBRIG], does not have any upcoming movies listed, but will drop [XMEN3] for whatever is announced, so it remains a safe bet he will fall in value. 1 Movie is in 'Release' currently ([GROSA]), and two are in 'Wrap' ([LVNHN], [HANTR]), and the fund is holding all three short. The other movie stock, [DVRGN], is in development and has a set release date for next year.

| Movie Stocks                                            |
| Name | Price | Shares Held   |   Value | % of Fund |
| DVRGN |$ 59.98 | 100,000 Long |$ 5,998,000| 8.48% |
| HANTR |$ 5.85 | 100,000 Short |$ 585,000| 0.83% |
| GROSA |$ 2.93 | 100,000 Short |$ 293,000| 0.41% |
| LVNHN |$ 0.15 | 100,000 Short |$ 15,000| 0.02% |

| Star Bonds |
| Name | Price | Shares Held |   Value | % of Fund | Next Adjust|
| CBRIG |$ 189.60 | 20,000 Short |$ 3,792,000| 5.36% | N/A |
| EMWAT |$ 153.34 | 20,000 Short |$ 3,066,800| 4.34% | 7/09/13 |
| JHUTC |$ 94.09 | 20,000 Long |$ 1,881,800| 2.66% | 6/18/13 |

|                         Fund Allocations      |
| Sm. Cap| Mid Cap | Lg. Cap | Movie | Bonds |DVLP|PROD|WRAP|RLSE |
| 1.26% | 11.15% | 9.70% | 9.8% | 12.4% |87.0|0.00| 8.7| 4.3|

I recommend waiting until later in the week to see how the fund is invested in order to get a better picture of what the funds short term outlook is. Below is a chart showing when the fund would delist based on certain DROI. I would be surprised if the fund had not delisted before June.

| DROI | Delist Date|
| .25% | 8/11/13 |
| .40% | 6/20/13 |
| .50% | 6/02/13 |
| .60% | 5/22/13 |
| .75% | 5/10/13 |
| .89% | 5/03/13 |
|1.00% | 4/29/13 |

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