Andrew Miller's Vizify Bio

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Volume I, Issue XIV "IN3D" & "AFRAM"

The [IN3D] Fund

The 3D Fund has grown from H$69.94 to H$83.88 (H$13.94, 19.93%, 0.66%dROI) over the last 30 days. The fund is currently only 49.5% invested, without accounting for profits tied up in shorted securities. The fund holds shares in [CROOD] and [GIJO2], and held shares in [OZTGP] until it delisted. The fund is radaring [IRNM3], [EPIC], [TREK2] and [GATSB], which gives the investor a reasonable idea where the loose funds may end up being invested. A little over 20% of the fund is invested in Star Bonds, many of which are attached to [IRNM3] and should adjust up significantly in the next couple of months. The fund only holds 2 Small-Cap securities, both Star Bonds, and a majority of the fund's positions are Mid-Cap securities (80%). The fund holds only three Movie Stocks with signifcant shares, ([CROOD], [GIJO2] and [JP3D) and after [JP3D] adjusts, it may be slow going until May. Because Star Bonds only make up 20% of the fund's investments, even at 1.00% dROI, they would only grow the fund at 0.20% dROI. Because of the size of the fund, finding large volumes of Star Bonds with better dROI than 1.00% will be difficult. Below is the current investment chart. (Not pictured are the two Derivatives the Fund holds, [JP3D.PU] Short) & [OZTGP.BW] (Long))


The Fund's top 10 investments consist of 3 Movie Stocks (metioned above) and 7 Star Bonds. In aggregate the investments make up 41.9% of the fund's value, and so account for nearly all invested funds. Interestingly, the fund only hold 75k shares of [CROOD], which makes me suspect the fund may be holding a certain volume of H$ free for investment in day-trading or positions on some of the extremely expensive summer block busters. A survey of the Star Bonds they are all being held correctly for their next adjust. The average dROI on the starbonds works out to 0.32%, with the first adjust being in late May. The top 10 investments are listed below.


If the fund continues to grow at its current pace (0.66% dROI), it would delist on 4/27/13. If the fund grows at its rate since IPO (1.75% dROI) it would delist in just 10 days on 4/11/13. If the fund struggles to gain traction after [JP3D], and only maintains a 0.40% dROI, it would delist on 5/13/13.

The [AFRAM] Fund

The African American Fund 2 has grown from H$41.85 to H$48.65 (H$6.80, 16.25%, 0.54%dROI) over the past 30 days. The fund is 70.8% invested, not counting profits tied up in shorted securities.The fund was able to play [GIJO2] and [TMRGC] this past weekend and grew significantly based on the decisions made by the fund manager. Because the fund manager does not radar stocks (and to a lesser extent because I'm too lazy to really, really dig into it), it is difficult to know exactly where the fund will go next, but I've got some ideas. I expect the fund to take positions on [42] (Historical), [SCAR5] ([SDOGG] [BWOW]), [OBLVN] ([MFREE]), [IRNM3] ([DCHEA]), and [WEPEP] ([TPERR] [CROBI]) in the coming month. Any wany you slice it, that is a lot of investment opprotunity for this fund, and the growth outlook is great. The fund's investments are concentrated in Mid-Cap securities, the account for 38.8% of the fund's value (54% of invested assets). Movie Stocks account for 56.1% of the fund's value, and Star Bonds make up 14.7%. The fund's current investment chart is shown below. (Not pictured are 2 derivaties, [IDTHF.BW] (Long) & [HANIBL] (Long))


The fund's top 10 investments account for 55.0% of its value, and almost half of that is [GIJO2]. The top 10 investments consist of 5 Movie Stock and 5 Star Bonds. Two of the Movie Stocks are currently in release, and may or may not be held until Delist. I imagine the fund manger will 'Cover' their shares of [GIJO2] in order to invest in some of the securities coming up later in the month. The five Star Bonds average 0.37% dROI, with the next adjust coming 4/23. All five of the Star Bonds are being held the correct direction. The top 10 investment chart is below.


If the fund contiunes to grow at 0.54% dROI, it would delist on 9/10/13. If it manages to maintin its dROI since IPO (0.97%) it would delist on 7/1/13. If the fund struggles and only achies a 0.24% dROI, its delist date would be 3/16/14. I would expect that with the plethera of movies coming out the fund can invest in, something inbetween 0.60% and 0.80% is most likely.

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Volume I, Issue XIII "SCIFI" & "SONYX"

THE [SCIFI] Fund


Over the past 30 days the Science Fiction Fund has grown from H$19.92 to H$21.94 (H$2.02, 10.14%, 0.34% dROI). The fund holds a large number of securities for its size (52), with the vast majority of them being Movie Stocks in the 'Development' phase. The fund has Positions on two Movie Stocks in Release, as well as significant investment in [JP3D]. The fund manager has allocated more than 25% of the fund into the Movie Stock and its associated derivatives and the fund's short term outlook will largely depend on how well that movie performs over the coming weeks. The fund's heavy investment in Small-Cap securities is unsurprising given the amount of capital the fund has to work with, and I think the avoidance of any Large-Cap securities at this point is a wise choice. I would expect the fund to move it's assets from [JP3D] into the Large-Cap [OBLVN] after the weekend ,or at some point before April 19th. The fund's holding are shown below. (Not shown are the Derivatives, which account for H$1.7m in holdings

Note: The Development, Production, Wrap and Release percentages are representative not of the share of the total fund, but of the share of funds invested in Movie Stocks.

The Fund is 90.3% invested not counting cash tied up in shorted shares. Most of the fund's assests are tied up in the top ten positions; they account for 71.3% of the fund's value. The top 10 investments consist of 4 Star Bonds, 5 Movie Stocks, and 1 Derivative. As mentioned previously, the heavy investment in [JP3D] is a gamble, but looking at BTC and MTC and RS projections for this weekend, the stock seem likely to appreciate in value. I like the choice to continue to hold the [HOST1] shares short, as the Movie Stock has little chance of appreciating much in value. I'm less certain about the decision to hold [SW23D] 'Short' at this point in thime. The film in 6 months away from release, and is priced relatively cheap (H$17.44), I wonder if the film really has a chance to open at less than 6.5 million over it's opening weekend, and worry that this stock might start to grow in value as the film approaches. **EDIT: After revewing the stock's tagged news here, it appears this film will not be released this fall after all. Holding this secuirty short now makes much more sense. Thanks srrichardson** A quick survey of the Star Bonds being held shows health dROI's for all of them. The top ten holdings are detailed below...


If the fund continues to grow at 0.34% dROI, it would delist on 6/16/14. I expect, however, with the large number of high-profile Science Fiction movie being release this year, the fund to achieve at least at 0.50% dROI, which would delist the fund on 1/26/14. A 1.0% dROI would delist the fund on 8/30/13. I would expect the fund to delist sometime in the 4th quarter of this year.

The [SONYX] Fund


The Sony Studio Fund has fallen from H$34.48 to H$34.40 (-H$0.08, -0.23%, -.01%dROI) over the last 30 days. The Fund grew pretty well over the first two weeks of the peroid, but struggle in the middle of March, losing the ground it had made. The fund holds a significant (more than 1,000 shares) stake in an extremely large amount of securiteis (99), with the vast majority being films in the 'Development' phase (77). Most of the fund, in terms of positions and shares, is invested in Small-Cap securities, with The fund seems to be shorting a lot of the 'Development' projects it is invested in, with 9 of the Top ten investments being held Short. The exception, [EVILD], is being held Long. This strategy is a two-edged sword, as missing news on one of the Movie Stocks being held can result in quick losses, but over time, the 'bleeding out' of these projects will provide substantial profits. One concern is that the fund has 98% of it's cash invested, but only owns 40k shares of [EVILD], and hasn't taken a position on the .OW derivative yet.I wonder what investments the fund will choose to abandon to take advantage of the money making opprotunities this weekend. The fund's holding are detailed below...


Note: The Development, Production, Wrap and Release percentages are representative not of the share of the total fund, but of the share of funds invested in Movie Stocks.


The fund is currently 98% invested, and 41.5% of that is represented in the fund's ten most expensive investments. The investment represent and interesting range of securities. Movie Stocks such as [GBUMP] and [EQLIZ] have had news recently, and I wonder if some of the fund's trouble over the middle of march related to the huge jumps in these securities. Most of the other securities seem like projects that the HSX community may be over-valuing considering the lack of news regarding them. Only 1 picture other than [EVILD] has a release date, [ABLNT], but it is eleven months away. The fund's top 10 holdings are detailed below...


While the past couple of week have been rocky for [SONYX], overall the fund has performed very well since IPO, maintaining a 1.23%dROI. If the fund were to maintain this pace, it's delist price would be H$266.73! While that seems like a really, really optimistic outlook, here are a couple of other options. a 1.00% dROI would delist at H$183.59, and a 0.75%dROI would delist at H$121.37. My hope is that the fund ends up over H$100, which would require greater than 0.63% dROI.