Andrew Miller's Vizify Bio

Sunday, March 24, 2013

Volume I, Issue VIII "TOLKN "& "UNIVX"

The [TOLKN] Fund


The Tolkien Fund Back Again has grown from H$89.37 to H$92.78 (H$3.41, 3.82%, 0.13%DROI) over the past 30 days. The fund has 73.03% of its funds invested, not counting excess profits tied up in shorted shares, or positions with fewer than 1,000 shares held. The fund’s top ten investments account for 51.5% of the fund’s value. A plurality of the fund’s value is invested in mid-cap stocks (41.46%) with most of the remainder in large-cap (25.3%).  The fund is heavily invested in Movie Stocks (50.8%) with a strong investment in Star Bonds (22.3%).  58% of the value of the fund’s Movie Stocks is invested in stocks in the ‘Wrap’ phase, with 21.1% in ‘Production’ and 18.5% in ‘Development.’

The funds top 10 investments consist of 6 Movie Stocks and 4 Star Bonds. Three of the six Movie Stocks release this year (FAST6, RIDC2, T5EST), and of the other three, only one has a release date (JUPTR). The fund seems to have a nice mix of development projects, which can quickly balloon in value, and films with firm release dates which tend to trend upwards more slowly, but steadily. All four of the Star Bonds in the Top 10 investments will adjust the up on their next adjusts, so the fund seems well positioned.

                                                           
| Movie Stocks                                            |
| Name  |  Price  | Shares Held   |   Value   | % of Fund |
| FAST6 | $ 176.43| 100,000 Long  |$17,643,000|   19.02%  |
| JUPTR | $  57.39| 100,000 Long  |$ 5,739,000|    6.19%  |
| RIDC2 | $  44.23| 100,000 Short |$ 4,423,000|    4.77%  |
| CINDE | $  37.08| 100,000 Long  |$ 3,708,000|    4.00%  |
| TINT2 | $  34.13| 100,000 Long  |$ 3,413,100|    3.68%  |
| T5EST | $  31.45| 100,000 Long  |$ 3,145,000|    3.39%  |

                                                                   
| Star Bonds                                                      |

| Name  |   Price  | # Shares   | Value    | % of Fund | Next Adj |
| RARMI | $ 157.59 | 20,000 Long|$3,151,800|   3.40%   |  1/07/14 |
| IMCKE | $ 133.55 | 20,000 Long|$2,671,000|   2.88%   |  1/07/14 |
| KURBA | $  99.20 | 20,000 Long|$1,984,000|   2.14%   |  6/11/13 |
| CLEE  | $  98.20 | 20,000 Long|$1,964,000|   2.12%   |  1/07/14 |
                                                                   
|                         Fund Allocations                        |

| Sm. Cap| Mid Cap | Lg. Cap | Movie | Bonds |DVLP|PROD|WRAP|RLSE |
|  6.27% | 41.46%  |  25.30% | 50.8% | 22.3% |18.5|21.1|57.3| 3.08|



I think this fund should delist in the next 1 to 1 ½ months. If it delisted 30 days from now it would be a 0.26%DROI, about double the past 30 days. I think this is a reasonable expectation provided the release of FAST6 between now and then, and the potential movement on the derivatives associated with it. If it took 45 days it would be 0.17%DROI.


The [UNIVX] Fund


The Universal Studio Fund has grown from H$29.86 to H$32.00 (H$2.14, 7.17%, 0.24%DROI) over the past 30 days. The fund holds 93.91% of its fund invested not counting excess profits from shorting stocks, or positions with fewer than 1,000 shares held. Interestingly, the fund’s assets are tied up in just 8 positions. 5 Are mid-cap (69.7%), 2 are large-cap (24.18%) and 1 is small-cap (0.1%). The fund’s assets are mostly tied up in ‘Development’ projects (59.8%), but that can be a little misleading, because projects like JURA4 and FAST7 will move into production shortly, and JURA4 already has a release date next summer.

The fund has chosen not to invest significantly in films with unsure futures. While it makes sense to think that FAST7 is undervalued (H$94.22), it may not make sense to have 29.5% of the fund’s value tied up in a stock that will not release before next summer (at the earliest). Currently the fund has only 25,002 shares invested in FAST6, and 25,001 shares invested in OBLVN, the next two releases from Universal, and without the funds that are tied up in FAST7 and JURA4 (together representing 56.1% of the fund’s value) I don’t know how the fund will make significant advances in the short term.

                                                           
| Movie Stocks                                            |
| Name  |  Price  | Shares Held   |   Value   | % of Fund |
| FAST7 | $  94.22| 100,000 Long  |$ 9,422,000|   29.52%  |
| JURA4 | $  84.89| 100,000 Long  |$ 8,489,000|   16.59%  |
| FAST6 | $ 176.43|  25,002 Long  |$ 4,411,103|   13.82%  |
| JP3D  | $  37.30| 100,000 Long  |$ 3,730,000|   11.69%  |
| OBLVN | $ 132.25|  25,001 Long  |$ 3,306,382|   10.36%  |
| PURGE | $  20.18|  25,001 Long  |$   504,520|    1.58%  |
| TED2  | $  94.02|   1,000 Long  |$    94,020|    0.29%  |
| ASTRD | $   7.67|   2,484 Short |$    19,052|    0.06%  |
                                                                   
|                         Fund Allocations                        |

| Sm. Cap| Mid Cap | Lg. Cap | Movie | Bonds |DVLP|PROD|WRAP|RLSE |
|  0.06% | 69.67%  | 24.18%  | 93.9% |  N/A  |59.8|0.00|39.9| 0.00|


On an aside, the UNIVX fund is allowed to invest in the upcoming releases from Universal Pictures and Focus Features, but I only see shares held for one upcoming Focus project (WSEND). The fund manager may want to investigate some of the limited release Focus Features stocks to see if there is an opportunity for a better ROI than the Universal blockbusters.

In order for UNIVX to delist at the same price as last year (H$48.97), the fund will need to average 0.30%DROI assuming a September 15th delist date. I’ve created a chart to show the needed DROI for several other delist prices.

                   
| Dlst $ |  DROI  |
|$ 40.00 |  0.14% |
|$ 50.00 |  0.32% |
|$ 60.00 |  0.50% |
|$ 70.00 |  0.67% |
|$ 80.00 |  0.85% |
|$ 90.00 |  1.03% |
|$100.00 |  1.21% |


Saturday, March 23, 2013

Volume I, Issue VII "DJAVU" & "SQUEL"

The [DJAVU] Fund


The Remake Fund 5 has had a solid past 30 days. The fund has grown from H$47.29 to H$55.79 (H$8.50, 17.97%, 0.60%DROI) showing epically strong growth over the past two weeks (H$ 6.45, 13.07%, 0.93%DROI). The fund has a large majority of its mid-cap movie stocks, with Movie Stocks representing 74.5% of the fund’s assets and mid-cap position accounting for 74.4%. The fund’s top ten investments consists of 9 Movie Stocks and 1 Star Bond—in aggregate they represent 59.9% of the fund’s worth.

The fund’s publicly calculable assets represent 93.03% of the fund’s value, it is likely that the fund has very little capital not invested. Most of the fund’s dollars invested in Movie Stocks are in the ‘Development’ phase. These movies tend to sit idle for a while before jumping quite a bit in value when they move into production.

The fund is holding 8 of its 9 Movie Stocks Long, most of them are in the Development or Production stage, so it makes sense to think their value will increase over time. Pictures like EQLIZ, UNCLE, and VACTN all have had news recently and seen good growth.

                                                           
| Movie Stocks                                            |
| Name  |  Price  | Shares Held   |   Value   | % of Fund |
| JACGK |$  61.51 | 100,000 Short |$ 6,515,000|  11.04%   |
| CINDE |$  37.13 | 100,000 Long  |$ 3,713,000|   6.66%   |
| GODZL |$  73.45 |  50,000 Long  |$ 3,672,500|   6.59%   |
ANNIE |$  35.15 | 100,000 Long  |$ 3,515,000|   6.31%   |
| COLOS |$  34.55 | 100,000 Long  |$ 3,455,000|   6.20%   |
| EQLIZ |$  32.57 | 100,000 Long  |$ 3,257,000|   5.85%   |
| OLDBO |$  28.27 | 100,000 Long  |$ 2,827,000|   5.07%   |
| UNCLE |$  23.18 | 100,000 Long  |$ 2,318,000|   4.16%   |
| VACTN |$  22.45 | 100,000 Long  |$ 2,245,000|   4.03%   |

                                                                 
| Star Bonds                                                      |

| Name  |   Price  | # Shares   | Value    | % of Fund | Next Adj |
LDCAP | $ 109.52 |20,000 Short|$2,190,400|   3.93%   |  6/04/13 |

                                                                   
|                         Fund Allocations                        |

| Sm. Cap| Mid Cap | Lg. Cap | Movie | Bonds |DVLP|PROD|WRAP|RLSE |
| 14.70% | 74.40%  |  3.87%  | 74.5% | 18.5% |61.9|15.7|4.18| 18.3|

Interestingly, DJAVU is holding LDCAP short, although at current prices, he would adjust up H$0.60 when GATSB delists on 6/4/2013. I wonder if the fund manager thinks GATSB is overpriced? Unless the manager thinks GATSB is very overpriced, I don’t think it makes much sense to tie up so much of the fund’s assets (3.93%) on a stock to won’t have a ton of movement. Even if GATSB drops to H$60.00, LDCAP would only adjust down to H$106.25 (H$-3.27, 2.99%, .04%DROI). A quick survey of the other Stab Bonds being held shows the manager does have a good eye towards which bonds represent a good investment, so I’m curious to know why they chose to Short LDCAP.

Overall I think the DJAVU fund is in a strong position to keep returning between 0.50%-0.75%DROI for the foreseeable future. It will be interesting to see how the fund tackles some of the upcoming remakes, such as EVILD and GATSB.


 The [SQUEL] Fund


The Sequel Fund has been struggling to gain much traction lately, growing from H$34.23 to H$34.69 over the past 30 days (H$0.46, 1.34%, .04%DROI). The fund is heavily invested in Movie Stocks, they represent 77.3% of the fund’s assets. Mid-cap stocks make up a majority of the fund’s investments, accounting for 67.9% of the fund’s value. A plurality of the value of the fund’s Movie Stock investments can be found in ‘Development’ movies- they account for 44.3% of the Movie Stock value.

The SQUEL Fund’s top 10 investments consist of 7 Movie Stocks and 3 Star Bonds. The Movie stocks run the gambit from films that are in development with no release date, to films in ‘Wrap’ coming out soon. The nice thing about the SQUEL fund is that there is no shortage of sequels coming out over the summer the fund can invest in. Just in the next two months GIJO2, SACR5, IRNM3, TREK2, FAST6, and HNVR3 all release. The fund should be able to take advantage of movement on those stocks to provide a solid return over the next few months.

                                                           
| Movie Stocks                                            |
| Name  |  Price  | Shares Held   |   Value   | % of Fund |
PAND3 |$  75.00 | 100,000 Long  |$ 7,500,000|   21.82%  |
| JB24  |$ 176.04 |  25,000 Long  |$ 4,401,000|   12.80%  |
| RIDC2 |$  43.59 | 100,000 Short |$ 4,359,000|   12.68%  |
| SCAR5 |$  29.54 | 100,000 Long  |$ 2,954,000|    8.59%  |
| KKID2 |$  23.93 | 100,000 Long  |$ 2,393,000|    6.96%  |
| RESE6 |$  33.34 |  50,000 Long  |$ 1,667,000|    4.85%  |
| BJON3 |$   2.97 | 100,000 Short |$   297,000|    0.86%  |
                                                                   
| Star Bonds                                                      |

| Name  |   Price  | # Shares   | Value    | % of Fund | Next Adj
|
ATISD | $  53.12 |20,000 Long |$1,062,400|   3.09%   |  5/07/13 |
| KBOWD | $  20.53 |20,000 Long |$  410,600|   1.19%   |  5/07/13 |
| LLOHA | $  16.56 |20,000 Long |$  331,200|   0.96%   |  5/07/13 |


                                                                   
|                         Fund Allocations                        |

| Sm. Cap| Mid Cap | Lg. Cap | Movie | Bonds |DVLP|PROD|WRAP|RLSE |
|  1.83% | 67.94%  | 12.80%  | 77.3% | 5.25% |44.3|28.2|27.5| 0.00|

However, the fund has limited resources, currently only about H$35 million, and many of these movies are blockbusters that will be difficult for the fund to invest in fully. For example, IRMN3 is currently trading at H$337.30, which would eat up almost the entire fund at 100,000 shares. In my opinion the fund will need to use the .OW derivatives (and guess correctly on them) throughout April in order to have enough capital to get the most out of May. It presents an interesting challenge for the manager of the fund. Investing in SQUEL could be quite lucrative over the summer months, but it could also be difficult to realize significant gains if the fund manager misses on a couple of movies in a row in April. I recommend investing in the fund and riding out the waves, because the potential payoff is so high.

Volume I, Issue VI "LATIN" & "BIGEZ"

The [LATIN] Fund

The Latin Fund has grown over the past 30 days from H$33.87 to H$36.38 (H$2.51, 7.41%, .25%DROI). The fund has been growing slowly but steadily for the past three months since it's IPO. The fund's current top ten investments consist of 9 Movie Stocks and 1 Starbond. Currently the fund is pretty spread out, with positions in many different movie stocks. One of the striking things that stuck me about this fund was the managers decisions on the amount of shares to buy. The fund holds two or three positions with 66,999 shares short. Several others with 44,999 shares. I believe the fund manager is using the different amounts of shares to represent different types of positions held, but I haven't seen that done before with numbers < 99,000 shares.

The top 10 positions of The Latin Fund are an interesting mix. It is good to see SPBRK in the mix, as it open's wide today, but it is a little odd to me that the fund holds so much of it's assets in stocks that it only holds 10,000 shares in. I wonder if the fund, worth just over H$35.00 million, is pushing to aggressively after mid-cap stocks, when it might be better off focusing on some of the small-cap stocks and star bonds instead.

                                                            
| Movie Stocks                                             |
| Name  |   Price  |     #Shares   |   Value   | % of Fund |
| TREK2 | $ 264.06 |  26,000 Long  |$6,865,560 |   18.97%  |
| SPBRK | $  23.37 | 100,000 Long  |$2,337,000 |    6.46%  |
| CWCM2 | $  79.06 |  20,000 Long  |$1,581,200 |    4.37%  |
| PACRM | $ 141.25 |  10,000 Long  |$1,412,500 |    3.90%  |
| RIO2  | $  65.92 |  20,000 Long  |$1,318,400 |    3.64%  |
| TURB1 | $  84.36 |  14,000 Long  |$1,181,040 |    3.26%  |
| SMRF2 | $  76.09 |  10,000 Long  |$  760,900 |    2.10%  |
| GRWN2 | $  70.73 |  10,000 Long  |$  707,300 |    1.95%  |
| GETAW | $  21.28 |  25,000 Long  |$  532,000 |    1.47%  |

                                                                   
| Star Bonds                                                      |
| Name  |   Price  | # Shares   | Value    | % of Fund | Next Adj |
| ABRAG | $  24.75 | 20,000 Long|$ 495,000 |   1.37%   |  9/03/13 |

                                                                   
|                         Fund Allocations                        |
| Sm. Cap| Mid Cap | Lg. Cap | Movie | Bonds |DVLP|PROD|WRAP|RLSE |
5.43% | 30.80%  | 22.87%  | 51.5% |  6.5% |2.21|26.0|57.9| 13.9|


The fund seems to be actively looking to take advantage of big upcoming releases, but I question how effective this strategy will be if the fund is not more heavily invested in them. I was surprised to see the fund had not taken a position on ADMSN yet, despite holding some radar stocks. Overall, I think the fund is a good ivestement for large portfolios, but smaller ones could probably get a better ROI on other investments.

The [BIGEZ] Fund

  he NOLA fund has had slow growth over the past 30 days. The fund has frown from H$29.12 to H$29.95 (H$0.83, 2.85%, 0.1%DROI) during this period. The fund is heavily invested, with the assests visible to the public representing 95% of the funds value. The fund shows heavy investment in mid-cap stocks, with an emphasis on movies. The fund’s current investments show that 87% of the funds value is held in movie stocks, with 92% of the value of those investments in films that are either in the ‘Wrap’ or ‘Release’ phase. The fund’s top 10 assets account for 87% of its worth, led by OBLVN, which accounts for 28.5% of the fund’s holdings. I like that the fund has positions in the OW derivatives of GIJO2 and OLYHF, these seem like good ways to invest in these movies without tying up much of the fund’s capital.

A point of concern for me is that the fund does not seem to be maximizing the value of the Star Bonds in which it can invest. From my perspective, I don’t see a reason to hold less than 20,000 shares of a Star Bond unless I’m tying up the last bit of liquidity I have available. For example, the fund holds 3,000 shares Short in KBOSW, who at current prices will adjust down H$1.37 on 8/6/2013 (.22%DROI) and holds 4,000 shares Long in KWASH, who at current prices will adjust up H$5.33 on 6/4/2013 (.20%DROI). To me, it would make more sense to go ‘all-in’ on KWASH, and move the assets from KWASH to KBOSW after KWASH adjusted.  However, a possible explanation is that the manager of the fund feels that both Star Bonds will continue to move incrementally each day, and until the adjust for KWASH is closer, it’s a better investment to capture each day’s movement than to wait for the adjust in June. While I don’t personally agree with that strategy, I can understand its appeal and don’t fault the fund manager for employing it.

                                                             
| Movie Stocks & Derivatives                                |
| Name   |   Price  |     #Shares   |   Value   | % of Fund |
| OBLVN  | $ 131.92 |  65,000 Long  |$8,574,800 |   28.52%  |
| OLYHF  | $  59.36 | 100,000 Long  |$5,936,000 |   19.74%  |
| HOST1  | $  48.79 |  95,000 Long  |$4,635,050 |   15.41%  |
| EGAME  | $ 137.98 |  20,000 Long  |$2,759,600 |    9.18%  |
| OLDBO  | $  28.32 |  40,000 Long  |$1,132,800 |    3.77%  |
| 2GUNS  | $  53.09 |  10,000 Long  |$  530,900 |    1.77%  |
|GIJO2.OW| $  52.05 |  10,000 Long  |$  520,500 |    1.73%  |
| THNDR  | $   9.72 |  50,000 Short |$  486,000 |    1.62%  |
| SGAME  | $  11.11 |  40,000 Short |$  444,400 |    1.48%  |
| GETAW  | $  21.28 |  25,000 Long  |$  532,000 |    1.47%  |

                                                                   
| Star Bonds                                                      |
| Name  |   Price  | # Shares   | Value    | % of Fund | Next Adj |
| BCUMB | $  84.57 | 15,000 Long|$1,223,550|   4.07%   |  6/11/13 |
                                                                   
|                         Fund Allocations                        |
| Sm. Cap| Mid Cap | Lg. Cap | Movie | Bonds |DVLP|PROD|WRAP|RLSE |
4.63% | 52.33%  | 37.69%  | 87.0% |  5.0% |1.86|6.03|69.4| 22.7|
The fund is heavily invested in OBLVN, but I worry that the movie stock may be tying up too much of the fund's assets, as it does not have too much of a change of opening much higher than $55 million over it's opening weekend. Even in that 'best case' scenario, the stock will only adjust to H$148.5, a 12% return. A more likly outcome is $50 million, which would yield a 2.4% return. I wonder whether tying up more than a quarter of the fund's assets in this position is wise.

Overall, I think this fund is well positioned, but the slow growth over the past few months gives me pause reccomending it. I feel, similar to the BIGEZ fund, that it may be a good investment if you posses a large portfolio, but smaller portfolios may want to look elswhere.